***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.9 29.2 28.3 0.7 62.9 57.3 27.8 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.3 28.6 0.9 65.3 59.1 27.0 28.7 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.9 28.5 0.6 59.3 55.4 27.0 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.0 26.4 0.6 60.6 57.2 20.5 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 26.4 0.2 52.0 52.8 28.2 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 25.7 27.1 23.5 -0.4 47.1 45.4 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.0 28.6 0.8 64.8 58.6 27.0 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.2 24.2 -0.3 46.6 46.4 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.3 26.6 0.3 53.4 52.8 27.6 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.0 24.9 -0.1 49.2 48.5 27.4 28.1 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.7 26.1 0.3 54.1 53.0 27.8 28.4 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.3 27.4 25.6 0.0 50.6 49.3 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.8 24.4 -0.5 45.2 45.0 27.4 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 26.8 28.1 25.5 -0.3 46.7 45.9 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 30.7 30.5 27.7 0.8 66.6 60.1 28.2 29.4 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.5 25.6 0.1 52.6 51.2 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.5 28.7 28.5 0.9 66.7 59.4 26.6 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 25.8 26.9 23.9 -0.5 42.2 43.2 26.4 27.0 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.5 28.6 0.9 65.1 58.5 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 21.2 21.5 21.1 -1.0 33.5 38.0 21.5 22.1 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.2 27.4 0.2 51.8 51.6 27.7 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 28.9 29.1 28.0 0.7 62.9 56.9 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.5 28.8 28.3 0.7 63.3 56.5 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.4 27.5 25.7 -0.2 47.5 47.2 27.0 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.0 26.4 0.3 56.7 54.1 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.8 25.3 0.1 55.7 50.5 26.7 28.3 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.9 27.4 0.6 61.0 56.3 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.0 26.7 0.5 61.2 56.7 28.6 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.5 22.6 -0.9 36.9 39.9 21.4 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.9 28.5 0.8 63.3 58.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------