***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 29.9 31.4 31.2 4.2 92.7 84.2 27.0 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.3 31.0 31.3 4.2 91.0 83.7 26.7 27.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.6 31.5 31.3 4.1 91.7 82.8 26.8 27.1 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 22.6 24.6 28.9 4.3 94.5 84.5 19.3 20.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 30.6 32.4 29.3 3.9 92.3 82.0 27.0 28.0 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 29.0 30.4 26.1 3.0 86.8 77.3 25.8 26.6 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 29.1 30.7 31.1 4.0 90.7 82.6 26.7 27.3 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.0 26.5 3.1 85.6 76.7 14.7 16.5 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 30.2 31.6 30.0 4.1 92.8 83.1 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.9 27.7 3.5 87.9 78.8 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 30.4 31.5 29.4 4.0 91.7 81.8 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.4 30.4 28.1 3.6 89.1 79.6 25.4 27.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 30.3 32.0 27.9 3.3 88.7 78.7 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 29.1 30.3 28.5 3.1 86.5 76.5 26.5 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 30.8 32.6 31.2 4.7 96.7 87.7 27.6 28.0 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 31.4 33.1 28.7 3.8 90.6 81.2 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 28.7 30.3 30.8 4.1 90.8 82.6 26.3 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 28.9 30.0 26.3 2.9 83.7 74.5 25.4 26.9 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 29.2 31.0 31.4 4.4 92.2 84.3 26.5 26.9 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.2 25.0 23.6 2.3 78.6 70.7 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.9 30.6 3.9 90.5 81.4 26.5 27.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 29.0 31.0 30.5 3.9 90.9 82.1 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 29.4 31.0 31.4 4.6 93.5 84.8 26.6 27.2 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.3 28.7 3.3 86.7 77.4 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 30.1 31.5 29.5 3.9 92.4 82.3 26.4 27.5 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.2 27.5 3.5 88.9 79.7 26.7 27.3 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 29.0 31.2 30.2 4.0 92.2 83.0 26.3 27.1 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 30.6 32.5 29.7 4.3 94.3 84.5 27.9 28.7 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.1 25.0 25.2 2.6 80.9 72.5 20.4 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 29.4 31.0 31.3 4.2 91.5 83.7 26.7 27.3 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------