***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.1 30.2 3.1 78.7 75.6 26.0 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 28.9 29.8 31.2 3.9 83.2 79.8 24.6 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 28.9 29.2 30.2 2.9 76.9 73.3 24.5 27.2 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.1 22.0 26.5 2.1 73.6 68.9 18.3 20.5 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 28.8 28.9 27.1 1.6 65.6 63.8 25.4 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.8 25.9 23.2 0.1 47.7 50.4 24.4 26.2 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.8 30.8 3.5 81.3 78.0 24.5 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.3 23.9 0.5 52.8 54.1 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 28.6 28.5 28.6 2.2 74.3 68.9 24.7 27.5 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.3 28.1 25.6 1.2 60.6 59.9 24.7 26.9 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 28.3 28.4 27.2 1.4 63.9 62.1 25.2 27.5 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.9 25.3 0.9 58.5 57.9 24.7 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.7 25.8 0.7 54.9 56.2 25.4 27.3 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.0 28.4 28.2 2.3 71.6 68.7 24.1 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.8 29.7 2.8 80.0 75.7 26.7 28.0 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 28.3 29.1 26.3 1.1 60.4 60.0 25.9 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.3 29.9 31.0 4.1 85.1 81.5 23.7 26.6 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.7 27.2 24.4 0.9 57.0 57.6 23.9 26.3 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 28.3 30.1 31.3 4.0 83.6 80.2 23.9 26.5 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.7 21.6 21.5 0.0 45.8 49.1 19.8 22.1 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.9 28.9 29.3 2.2 72.7 68.2 24.6 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 28.7 31.0 30.7 3.9 83.9 81.0 24.0 26.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 28.7 30.1 31.3 4.2 84.8 81.1 23.9 26.9 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 28.1 27.8 27.7 1.8 67.5 65.4 23.7 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 29.1 28.9 28.3 2.2 73.7 69.0 24.8 27.4 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.2 23.9 0.2 50.5 51.5 24.8 27.1 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 28.4 28.9 29.2 2.7 77.6 72.9 24.0 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 29.8 30.1 27.4 1.9 71.4 67.7 26.7 28.5 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.1 21.8 23.4 0.6 52.7 55.2 18.6 21.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.7 31.0 3.6 81.5 78.1 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------