***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.7 18.1 1.1 77.0 71.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.6 15.9 18.2 1.3 79.1 74.1 14.3 15.1 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 17.4 17.5 18.3 1.0 75.6 71.6 16.6 16.9 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.6 12.8 15.7 0.9 76.7 70.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.3 15.7 0.7 73.0 67.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.1 13.1 0.2 61.3 56.2 12.5 12.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.0 18.4 1.3 79.1 73.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.0 12.7 0.1 55.9 53.7 7.4 8.0 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.5 15.7 0.6 71.7 65.6 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.2 13.8 0.3 59.7 57.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.3 14.9 0.5 67.6 62.7 14.5 14.9 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.9 13.7 0.3 62.3 58.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.3 13.3 0.0 56.0 52.5 14.0 14.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.8 15.5 0.4 64.6 60.8 15.3 15.6 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.1 17.2 0.9 79.5 72.7 15.6 16.0 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.5 14.3 0.4 64.2 60.1 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.7 18.1 1.3 81.0 74.9 15.4 15.7 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.6 13.0 0.2 56.0 55.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.8 18.3 1.3 80.7 75.4 14.8 15.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.4 10.8 0.1 51.9 52.0 9.1 9.4 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.3 17.1 0.7 71.3 66.2 14.5 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.3 15.5 18.0 1.3 80.2 75.3 14.4 14.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.1 18.2 1.4 82.3 76.2 14.2 14.6 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.5 15.4 0.5 64.4 61.9 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.2 16.6 0.8 72.9 67.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.1 13.0 0.3 62.0 59.5 13.6 13.8 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.3 17.4 1.0 77.2 71.2 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.7 16.0 0.8 75.5 69.5 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.9 12.2 0.0 50.5 50.9 11.7 11.9 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 1.2 78.2 73.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------