***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 18.4 0.6 64.0 57.0 14.4 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.7 18.4 0.8 63.4 58.1 13.6 14.6 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.6 18.5 0.6 63.2 56.6 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.8 16.0 0.6 60.6 57.0 11.3 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 15.6 0.4 56.4 54.2 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 13.6 0.0 51.4 50.9 12.2 12.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.8 18.6 0.8 63.8 58.3 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.3 13.2 0.0 53.6 49.9 7.3 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.3 15.8 0.3 55.8 53.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.1 14.1 0.0 52.8 50.2 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.3 15.1 0.3 56.8 53.9 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 14.0 0.1 53.7 51.8 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.8 13.2 -0.2 45.5 47.5 13.5 13.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.0 15.6 0.1 50.4 49.3 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.1 17.4 0.7 64.3 59.8 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.2 14.4 0.2 53.6 52.7 14.5 15.1 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 18.3 0.8 63.5 57.7 14.9 15.9 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.5 13.0 -0.2 47.0 47.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.9 18.4 0.8 64.9 58.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.5 10.7 -0.3 45.5 45.8 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.2 17.2 0.3 57.8 53.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.4 18.1 0.7 62.9 57.5 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.6 18.2 0.8 65.1 58.4 13.6 14.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.5 15.4 0.1 50.9 50.4 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 16.8 0.4 59.6 54.6 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.0 13.3 0.2 52.7 53.5 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.5 17.6 0.6 63.3 56.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.7 16.3 0.6 61.6 57.7 13.9 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.7 12.4 -0.2 44.9 46.1 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 18.6 0.7 63.6 57.9 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------