***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.3 17.5 0.4 59.6 56.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.1 17.4 0.3 57.9 54.6 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.8 17.7 0.3 58.3 55.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 15.0 0.2 57.5 53.4 11.7 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.6 14.8 0.1 54.2 51.9 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.8 12.8 -0.2 43.6 47.1 12.6 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.2 17.6 0.4 59.8 55.0 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.9 12.4 -0.2 45.2 46.5 7.5 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 15.1 0.1 54.2 52.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 13.4 -0.1 48.5 48.5 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 14.3 0.1 53.5 52.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 13.3 -0.1 48.1 48.8 12.1 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.2 12.6 -0.3 40.5 44.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.1 14.8 -0.2 47.6 46.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.1 16.6 0.4 62.0 57.7 15.8 16.2 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 13.8 0.0 50.6 51.1 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.2 17.2 0.3 56.5 53.1 15.3 16.1 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.5 12.5 -0.3 44.5 45.5 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.8 17.4 0.4 59.4 56.0 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.3 10.1 -0.5 38.6 41.0 8.5 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.7 16.4 0.1 54.6 52.4 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.4 17.0 0.3 57.9 54.2 14.5 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.2 17.3 0.5 61.3 57.2 14.4 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.9 14.7 -0.1 48.6 48.3 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.7 15.8 0.1 55.9 52.2 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.0 12.6 -0.1 47.6 49.2 13.3 14.1 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 16.7 0.4 59.1 55.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.8 15.4 0.2 57.7 54.4 13.9 14.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.3 12.0 11.7 -0.4 40.0 42.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 17.6 0.4 59.5 55.7 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------