***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 16.2 17.5 19.5 2.8 92.1 81.2 14.7 15.0 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 15.9 18.8 19.4 2.8 93.7 82.4 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 18.0 20.2 19.6 2.7 93.1 81.3 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 13.8 15.8 17.0 2.6 91.9 79.8 10.6 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.8 17.0 2.3 89.7 78.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.5 14.1 14.1 1.7 85.3 73.8 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 16.3 18.4 19.5 2.8 92.2 81.9 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.7 13.8 1.5 79.9 71.6 6.7 7.6 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.9 17.0 2.1 88.9 78.0 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 15.5 16.2 14.9 1.7 82.0 73.4 14.1 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.2 16.2 1.9 86.4 76.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.1 15.0 1.8 84.5 74.3 11.7 12.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.7 15.3 14.6 1.4 81.1 71.7 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 16.6 18.0 16.6 1.8 87.0 75.7 14.6 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.5 18.5 2.5 92.9 80.9 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.7 16.6 15.6 1.8 86.0 75.0 13.8 14.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 16.5 19.2 19.2 2.8 93.4 82.4 14.5 15.4 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.4 15.3 14.1 1.5 83.8 72.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 16.3 18.4 19.5 2.9 94.1 83.4 14.1 15.1 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.0 11.0 12.0 1.5 81.7 72.1 8.5 8.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 15.9 17.0 18.4 2.2 89.3 78.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 15.9 18.0 19.2 2.9 94.3 83.9 13.7 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 15.7 18.1 19.5 3.0 94.5 84.0 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.1 17.7 16.5 1.8 87.1 75.5 14.3 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 15.6 16.8 18.1 2.5 88.5 78.2 13.8 14.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.6 15.8 14.4 1.9 86.8 75.9 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 15.7 17.7 18.9 2.7 91.0 80.3 13.3 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 14.6 15.7 17.3 2.4 91.4 79.5 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.7 13.2 1.3 79.5 70.1 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.6 18.6 19.7 2.9 93.5 82.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------