***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.0 17.1 0.4 61.2 58.0 14.2 14.6 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 17.7 1.1 70.5 65.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.1 17.5 0.6 64.3 60.1 15.1 16.3 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.5 14.8 0.3 58.1 55.5 9.9 11.3 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 15.1 0.1 56.6 53.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.7 11.7 -0.6 41.9 42.5 11.3 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.8 17.7 1.0 70.7 64.6 13.9 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.5 11.5 -0.8 38.3 40.3 6.3 7.5 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.5 15.0 -0.1 54.3 51.7 13.0 14.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.1 12.8 -0.5 44.1 44.2 12.8 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.1 14.1 -0.4 46.7 46.7 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.6 12.7 -0.6 41.8 42.7 11.3 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.2 12.7 -0.8 38.3 39.0 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.0 14.9 0.1 57.9 53.9 13.9 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.6 16.2 0.3 59.6 56.2 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.1 13.5 -0.6 42.3 43.3 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.3 17.8 1.4 73.1 68.7 14.2 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.2 12.8 12.4 -0.3 47.6 47.4 11.6 12.9 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.3 17.8 1.1 70.9 66.5 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.2 10.3 -0.5 44.1 44.6 7.7 8.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.6 16.2 0.0 56.7 53.1 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.3 17.8 1.3 72.4 68.5 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.0 14.7 17.7 1.2 70.4 67.5 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.8 15.0 0.1 57.1 53.7 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.2 15.8 0.0 54.5 52.2 12.8 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.5 11.9 -0.6 39.5 42.2 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.5 16.5 0.3 59.0 56.2 12.8 13.6 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 15.1 0.1 56.2 54.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.4 11.3 -0.6 40.9 42.1 10.1 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.3 17.8 1.0 69.0 64.4 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------