***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 55.4 50.4 55.3 94.2 52.6 49.4 36.3 49.3 63.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 54.0 48.8 45.3 88.4 51.1 47.6 39.3 48.8 63.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 54.2 53.6 54.6 96.0 55.2 49.4 38.5 47.5 66.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 59.8 55.3 50.9 97.3 55.5 52.1 38.5 51.8 79.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 58.0 55.1 52.8 98.4 57.2 52.5 39.1 52.4 61.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 50.5 47.5 56.9 93.0 50.4 47.8 39.2 47.1 53.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 58.9 54.0 46.2 89.1 52.8 47.5 41.7 50.8 64.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 84.8 79.8 63.1 102.5 58.4 53.5 69.3 72.3 113.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 52.2 51.7 59.0 100.9 58.3 53.5 35.8 47.7 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 80.5 81.8 66.8 99.6 57.1 52.3 55.9 75.6 87.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 50.2 47.0 48.4 92.6 55.5 48.9 32.7 41.4 63.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 58.4 55.4 49.8 100.0 57.7 52.4 37.5 53.8 61.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 45.2 43.7 50.6 95.2 54.3 50.8 27.6 42.5 47.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 84.9 88.2 73.6 101.9 58.7 53.0 57.9 79.6 95.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 45.1 43.1 38.1 86.8 52.5 47.9 17.3 39.5 50.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 48.6 47.6 49.7 99.6 57.5 52.2 31.4 46.3 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 59.9 54.5 42.3 86.2 51.8 46.6 35.7 53.5 72.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 68.4 70.3 81.1 109.4 59.5 56.7 46.5 62.5 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 65.6 60.0 46.9 89.2 51.1 47.2 39.0 57.9 71.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 66.6 71.1 74.9 104.4 60.0 54.3 49.9 64.0 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 51.7 54.7 55.3 95.8 55.1 50.8 36.5 43.9 65.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 59.0 50.5 42.8 85.6 52.3 46.0 36.5 48.1 73.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 66.0 63.2 52.4 93.6 52.8 48.4 47.1 62.3 70.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 81.7 83.4 71.7 105.9 58.9 54.8 59.4 75.8 86.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 59.3 53.5 56.9 89.4 50.8 48.2 36.9 53.1 71.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 45.1 42.6 39.5 92.0 53.4 48.6 30.9 40.7 51.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 63.0 58.3 58.4 91.0 51.5 48.4 44.2 56.3 78.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 42.0 38.6 45.6 94.1 55.0 50.7 22.5 36.6 46.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 90.2 104.7 83.0 110.4 61.2 56.9 63.5 81.5 108.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 64.8 62.3 48.3 90.6 52.4 47.9 49.1 59.6 71.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------