***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 17.0 12.9 125.9 72.5 54.5 3.2 5.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.9 13.5 11.2 125.2 74.1 54.9 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 14.7 13.2 127.9 73.9 55.1 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 25.7 11.3 112.7 72.6 55.5 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.8 20.5 11.9 122.0 74.3 55.4 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.1 18.1 13.2 101.4 65.9 49.0 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.8 11.4 127.9 73.3 54.5 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.6 38.8 14.5 113.7 68.3 52.0 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.5 23.1 13.2 122.3 73.2 55.5 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 22.5 15.3 113.0 69.0 52.8 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.9 17.8 10.9 115.3 70.8 51.5 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.8 27.9 11.4 116.5 70.7 52.6 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.8 17.9 10.9 104.6 67.5 48.7 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.0 24.2 17.7 125.3 70.9 56.4 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.5 8.9 105.8 72.6 55.7 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.6 19.0 10.8 113.1 70.5 51.8 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.2 20.7 11.5 129.9 75.9 55.5 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.8 26.9 18.3 118.2 70.5 54.9 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 15.8 11.5 121.1 73.1 53.7 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.1 23.1 17.9 111.7 66.2 51.7 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.9 12.7 121.8 73.5 54.7 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 12.7 10.7 108.0 68.6 51.2 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.3 18.1 12.7 120.3 73.4 53.7 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.3 19.2 16.6 125.7 73.3 56.7 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 19.5 13.5 118.9 73.9 54.5 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.1 8.1 94.8 65.7 48.1 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 17.4 13.8 121.4 72.2 53.9 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.5 9.8 101.3 70.3 53.3 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.3 28.8 19.0 119.1 69.1 54.4 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.7 11.8 124.6 73.1 55.3 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------