***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.8 14.0 92.1 62.9 47.1 3.6 11.1 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.8 12.9 95.3 59.1 49.2 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.8 13.1 84.8 56.2 44.8 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.4 9.8 75.6 58.0 46.3 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.6 10.1 76.2 57.3 45.5 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.9 9.5 62.2 49.6 39.7 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.8 21.1 13.4 97.3 60.5 48.9 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.3 13.4 8.3 55.6 45.0 38.1 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.2 11.9 79.1 56.0 45.4 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.4 8.8 10.0 58.3 45.2 36.7 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.3 6.3 53.8 48.2 35.6 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.1 7.1 60.4 49.4 40.5 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.3 7.3 56.8 50.1 38.4 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.1 14.4 17.2 84.5 53.4 43.7 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.8 3.5 7.0 64.9 56.1 45.1 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.7 7.8 65.4 54.5 42.4 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.8 12.4 12.1 92.0 59.2 47.5 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.2 10.7 14.8 75.7 50.3 42.6 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.4 12.8 91.1 57.4 47.4 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 9.8 11.4 64.7 44.0 40.3 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.0 12.2 81.9 59.6 46.2 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.1 13.0 95.0 59.4 48.4 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.0 11.9 13.1 85.2 55.0 44.8 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.0 15.6 83.8 54.1 44.6 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.7 13.7 85.8 61.6 47.2 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.9 5.5 54.8 52.7 39.1 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.2 14.7 15.2 91.9 61.9 47.5 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.7 5.3 7.8 66.3 55.8 44.6 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.8 18.0 15.5 78.8 50.3 43.5 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.7 10.7 13.3 92.4 58.4 48.3 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------