***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.8 13.3 85.5 56.4 49.7 5.6 9.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.1 9.7 69.8 53.8 43.8 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.5 12.3 11.2 72.3 52.0 42.9 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.7 11.3 79.0 57.1 45.1 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.7 12.0 82.2 56.8 45.4 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.1 13.6 83.6 53.8 40.7 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.2 10.0 71.3 53.1 42.1 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.2 17.9 10.2 69.1 49.2 39.8 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.2 6.7 11.6 73.6 54.0 45.6 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.9 8.5 8.6 52.8 43.3 33.9 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.7 4.1 8.3 55.1 42.2 30.8 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.4 10.5 76.7 53.4 42.0 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.6 8.1 11.4 82.2 56.8 38.3 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.1 15.4 14.1 74.5 52.8 42.8 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.1 9.3 77.7 58.4 42.6 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.6 13.2 98.0 60.9 46.4 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.0 8.7 64.2 49.3 40.4 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.1 17.2 91.9 57.6 50.4 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 10.4 9.6 67.1 53.3 41.6 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.3 9.1 9.9 57.5 37.9 32.2 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.2 9.5 10.9 68.3 52.7 42.1 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.6 8.9 65.6 53.4 42.1 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.9 14.0 11.5 73.7 53.7 43.4 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.1 15.5 86.8 57.5 49.1 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.8 11.1 12.4 70.1 51.9 41.9 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.1 4.6 10.5 87.5 53.4 39.6 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.0 13.2 76.1 53.7 45.0 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.0 9.8 77.1 57.1 41.7 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.2 17.4 16.9 87.7 54.7 46.3 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.5 10.0 70.0 52.8 43.3 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------