***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 16.7 20.0 15.1 85.1 61.1 55.3 4.2 15.3 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 19.6 18.3 11.5 77.3 58.1 51.6 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 16.1 25.4 17.1 109.2 65.8 61.5 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 23.1 25.1 18.4 123.5 70.7 64.8 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 21.3 18.8 18.9 117.2 68.4 64.1 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 18.7 21.2 20.5 122.0 69.4 64.8 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.6 16.8 11.4 75.5 57.7 52.1 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 31.6 46.4 30.1 152.7 76.2 70.5 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 15.3 18.0 22.3 133.1 70.2 65.6 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 26.1 35.1 32.8 160.9 79.3 72.5 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 22.9 21.6 22.9 143.7 74.3 69.6 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 17.2 21.4 20.8 141.7 72.4 67.0 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 19.0 20.7 21.0 131.1 72.8 68.5 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.9 23.9 24.5 129.4 69.2 62.7 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.1 10.1 12.9 101.5 68.2 61.4 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 17.0 13.7 18.0 121.2 69.5 64.9 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 17.2 18.9 10.0 74.0 57.5 47.3 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 20.0 18.8 30.8 147.3 73.2 69.6 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.9 18.3 12.9 88.8 61.3 54.4 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 18.1 20.7 35.6 174.6 82.1 77.4 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 13.9 22.5 19.6 118.8 66.5 63.1 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 13.5 10.2 79.0 59.7 47.4 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.2 16.9 15.2 104.4 65.1 58.0 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 29.2 28.0 24.1 132.6 68.5 64.9 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 12.2 17.9 17.3 92.9 62.7 59.0 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 17.8 20.5 15.5 126.1 69.8 65.9 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.6 19.7 16.2 85.7 60.9 55.5 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.0 15.2 18.2 126.9 72.1 65.9 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 30.4 36.9 31.6 152.9 75.4 71.1 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.0 13.2 87.5 59.9 55.2 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------