***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 27.7 28.2 28.7 1.0 65.2 63.4 27.3 27.5 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 27.5 27.9 28.8 0.9 63.9 62.1 26.9 27.3 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 27.7 27.9 28.8 0.8 60.9 61.6 26.8 27.5 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 20.6 20.8 26.1 0.5 58.9 57.0 19.9 20.4 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 28.2 28.2 26.6 0.4 56.0 56.2 27.0 28.0 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 26.8 27.2 24.2 0.5 61.5 59.9 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 27.3 27.7 28.8 0.9 62.3 61.8 27.0 27.2 27.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.9 24.3 0.2 52.4 52.9 15.3 15.8 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 27.6 28.2 27.2 0.6 59.6 59.0 26.6 27.5 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 27.5 27.4 25.3 0.3 55.2 54.6 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 27.8 27.8 26.4 0.3 55.6 54.8 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.0 25.7 0.3 55.8 55.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 28.1 28.3 25.6 0.4 56.9 56.4 27.0 27.9 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 27.4 27.2 26.7 0.6 56.5 58.2 26.4 27.2 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 28.7 28.8 28.0 0.8 63.4 63.6 28.0 28.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.2 26.1 0.4 58.0 57.2 27.5 28.4 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 27.1 27.4 28.6 0.9 63.7 61.9 26.3 26.9 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 26.6 26.5 24.5 0.3 53.2 53.8 25.7 26.4 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 27.1 27.4 28.9 0.9 64.5 62.7 26.2 26.8 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 22.4 22.1 21.9 0.0 49.1 49.4 21.5 22.2 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 27.9 27.9 28.1 0.6 59.7 59.3 26.8 27.7 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.9 28.5 0.9 64.2 63.0 26.6 27.0 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 27.9 27.5 28.8 1.0 65.4 64.3 26.7 27.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 26.9 26.7 26.6 0.5 56.1 56.8 26.2 26.7 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 27.7 27.8 27.1 0.7 60.5 60.0 27.2 27.5 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.8 25.4 0.6 59.6 59.8 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 27.1 27.6 27.8 0.8 63.7 62.0 26.6 26.9 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 28.9 28.9 26.7 0.5 58.8 58.3 27.8 28.7 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 21.9 21.6 23.5 0.1 51.4 51.6 21.0 21.6 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 27.3 27.6 28.8 0.9 62.6 62.1 26.7 27.1 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------