***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.8 29.0 29.4 0.7 62.7 58.0 26.1 27.1 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.3 29.4 0.7 60.4 57.3 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.0 29.7 0.8 63.2 58.7 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.7 27.3 0.4 59.4 54.5 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.0 27.4 0.3 58.1 53.5 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.3 28.5 25.1 0.5 60.7 55.0 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.1 29.3 0.6 60.1 57.0 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.4 25.3 0.1 53.9 51.0 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 27.9 28.6 27.7 0.5 61.5 55.4 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 26.2 27.6 26.1 0.3 55.9 52.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 26.3 28.1 27.0 0.3 55.7 52.6 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 25.5 27.3 26.8 0.3 57.5 53.3 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.0 26.2 0.4 56.3 53.3 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.5 26.9 0.2 57.2 53.3 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.1 30.3 28.7 0.9 65.3 59.6 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.1 26.8 0.4 57.3 54.0 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.7 29.1 0.5 57.4 55.4 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.2 26.5 25.4 0.2 55.4 51.3 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.7 29.5 0.8 62.0 58.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 20.7 22.0 22.7 -0.1 49.2 47.8 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.9 28.7 28.7 0.5 61.9 56.0 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.1 28.9 0.5 57.8 56.2 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.9 28.4 29.4 0.8 63.7 58.9 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 25.7 27.5 27.1 0.3 58.3 53.9 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.5 27.6 0.5 60.1 55.2 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.8 29.3 26.9 0.7 62.9 57.1 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.1 28.3 0.6 61.2 56.4 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.3 27.7 0.6 60.1 55.8 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.9 24.2 0.0 51.7 49.3 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.3 29.4 0.7 61.6 58.0 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------