***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 29.8 29.9 29.1 1.1 66.9 62.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.2 29.2 1.1 68.0 62.9 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 29.6 29.5 29.5 1.2 66.9 63.7 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.8 22.0 27.0 0.7 60.1 60.7 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.7 27.2 0.7 59.7 59.7 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 28.2 28.4 25.0 0.9 60.6 61.8 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.9 29.1 1.0 64.3 61.8 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.0 25.3 0.6 57.4 58.3 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 29.7 29.3 27.5 0.8 62.4 61.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.8 26.0 0.7 58.9 59.0 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.3 26.9 0.7 58.4 59.2 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 27.9 28.4 26.7 0.8 59.6 59.9 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 29.4 29.9 26.0 0.8 58.7 59.6 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.5 26.8 0.7 64.1 60.3 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 30.8 30.7 28.4 1.1 66.6 65.1 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.1 30.5 26.7 0.8 60.2 60.3 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.5 28.9 0.9 64.1 61.0 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.7 25.3 0.6 58.5 58.1 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 29.0 28.8 29.4 1.3 69.6 64.2 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.4 22.7 0.3 54.6 55.8 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.5 28.5 0.9 63.5 61.3 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.2 28.8 1.1 67.2 62.8 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.0 29.3 1.3 69.8 65.1 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.4 27.0 0.7 61.6 59.9 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 30.0 29.3 27.3 0.8 63.2 61.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 28.5 29.7 26.7 1.2 62.5 63.9 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.0 28.1 0.9 65.0 61.6 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 30.9 30.4 27.4 0.8 61.7 61.5 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.7 24.1 0.4 56.2 56.5 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.1 29.2 1.1 67.9 63.0 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------