***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.8 29.3 2.0 75.0 70.4 26.8 27.6 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 29.0 28.7 29.4 1.9 70.1 68.9 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 29.2 29.5 29.4 1.9 70.4 68.5 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.0 21.9 26.2 1.3 67.8 64.3 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 29.9 29.5 27.1 1.4 68.1 65.3 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.1 28.9 24.6 1.3 69.6 65.2 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 28.8 28.4 29.3 1.8 69.8 68.3 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.4 24.8 1.2 66.5 63.1 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 29.7 29.6 27.9 1.6 71.3 67.3 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.2 25.9 1.4 67.8 64.6 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.1 27.0 1.3 65.9 64.2 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 28.1 29.0 26.1 1.3 67.8 64.1 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 29.5 29.7 26.2 1.3 67.8 64.2 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.9 27.5 1.7 68.3 67.4 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.1 28.4 1.5 71.6 67.0 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 30.0 29.9 26.6 1.3 68.6 64.8 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 28.4 27.8 29.2 1.9 70.1 68.9 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.3 28.0 25.1 1.4 67.9 64.6 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.6 29.4 1.9 70.4 69.1 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 23.9 22.6 1.0 65.3 61.3 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.7 28.8 1.7 71.0 67.7 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.0 29.1 2.0 70.4 69.5 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.0 29.4 2.1 72.4 70.6 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.4 27.4 1.6 68.0 66.5 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.8 27.7 1.7 71.3 67.6 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.8 25.6 1.4 70.5 65.2 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 28.7 29.4 28.4 1.8 72.9 69.1 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 29.9 29.9 27.0 1.3 68.5 64.3 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 23.7 23.5 24.1 1.3 65.9 63.5 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 29.0 28.6 29.4 1.9 69.9 68.7 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------