***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 27.7 27.6 27.1 0.0 50.6 50.2 26.3 27.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 26.6 26.4 27.3 -0.1 48.6 49.6 25.1 26.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 27.3 26.7 26.8 -0.4 48.0 46.6 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 20.8 19.4 23.6 -0.6 42.7 43.2 18.8 20.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 27.6 26.7 24.6 -0.8 42.8 42.4 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 26.4 25.4 22.1 -0.7 43.3 42.9 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 26.6 26.4 27.4 0.0 48.7 49.9 24.7 26.4 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.0 14.6 21.8 -1.2 40.3 38.8 13.9 15.6 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 27.3 27.0 25.6 -0.6 45.3 44.4 25.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 27.1 25.9 23.1 -1.1 41.8 40.4 25.1 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 27.4 26.6 24.6 -1.0 42.2 40.7 25.6 27.1 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 26.2 25.4 23.1 -1.1 41.3 39.9 25.0 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 27.4 26.5 24.0 -0.9 42.9 41.1 26.1 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 27.5 27.1 25.4 -0.4 47.6 47.1 24.1 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 28.1 27.5 26.6 -0.2 44.7 46.5 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 28.2 27.3 24.2 -0.8 43.1 41.7 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 26.3 26.3 27.2 0.1 51.6 51.5 24.7 26.1 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 26.3 25.3 22.2 -1.1 41.2 40.5 24.3 26.0 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 26.4 26.2 27.1 -0.2 48.8 49.0 24.2 26.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.4 21.0 19.9 -1.4 39.3 37.9 20.2 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 27.1 26.5 26.5 -0.5 45.9 45.0 25.4 26.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 26.4 26.5 27.0 0.1 52.9 51.2 24.5 26.2 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 27.2 27.2 27.0 -0.1 51.4 50.0 24.4 27.2 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 26.9 26.2 24.9 -0.7 45.0 43.9 24.3 26.8 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 27.6 27.0 25.7 -0.3 46.8 47.0 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 27.1 25.9 22.5 -1.0 43.8 40.9 24.8 26.7 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 26.6 26.4 26.5 0.0 48.9 49.4 24.9 26.5 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 28.2 27.2 24.7 -0.6 42.4 42.8 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 22.0 20.5 21.3 -1.2 39.8 39.4 19.1 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 26.6 26.4 27.3 -0.2 47.9 48.8 24.7 26.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------