***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.6 18.3 0.6 64.9 58.3 14.6 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.6 18.3 0.6 64.0 58.2 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.7 18.7 0.6 66.5 59.1 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.9 12.6 15.9 0.4 61.0 55.6 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.8 15.1 15.7 0.4 61.8 55.2 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.3 14.0 0.5 63.9 57.6 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 18.4 0.6 63.1 58.3 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.3 13.3 0.2 57.0 52.9 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.5 15.9 0.5 63.4 57.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.5 14.3 0.3 59.8 55.1 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.3 15.1 0.3 59.1 54.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.7 13.1 14.1 0.3 57.2 53.8 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.4 13.8 0.4 60.2 55.3 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 15.9 0.4 63.1 57.4 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.0 17.5 0.6 65.0 58.6 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.9 14.7 0.4 60.3 55.5 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 18.1 0.6 64.4 57.9 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.3 13.6 0.4 62.0 57.7 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.7 18.3 0.6 64.6 58.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.7 11.1 0.3 59.5 55.1 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.5 17.4 0.5 65.4 57.9 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.4 17.9 0.5 62.3 57.7 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.4 18.2 0.7 66.4 59.8 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.2 15.8 0.5 63.1 58.6 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.8 16.8 0.5 62.9 56.7 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 12.9 14.3 13.7 0.5 61.8 57.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.5 17.5 0.6 64.6 57.9 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.7 16.3 0.5 62.2 56.0 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.8 12.9 0.4 60.4 56.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.3 16.0 18.5 0.6 64.3 58.4 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------