***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.4 18.2 0.7 67.1 62.2 15.4 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.6 18.2 0.7 67.1 62.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.2 18.5 0.8 69.2 64.0 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.6 15.8 0.5 64.6 60.5 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.2 15.6 0.5 63.3 60.3 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.0 14.1 0.8 71.1 66.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.2 18.3 0.7 65.9 61.6 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.0 13.3 0.5 61.6 60.6 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.1 15.7 15.9 0.6 65.8 61.9 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.1 15.5 14.3 0.5 62.0 60.7 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.1 15.1 0.5 62.5 60.8 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.7 14.1 0.6 64.2 61.6 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.3 13.8 0.6 65.9 62.4 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.6 15.9 0.6 65.5 62.3 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.3 17.4 0.8 69.0 64.1 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.4 14.7 0.6 64.8 62.2 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.7 18.0 0.7 65.1 61.4 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.4 13.5 0.6 65.2 62.6 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.2 18.2 0.8 67.8 63.2 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.3 11.1 0.5 60.5 59.8 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.1 17.3 0.7 66.6 62.4 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.0 17.8 0.7 65.2 62.3 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.7 18.1 0.8 69.4 65.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.7 15.7 0.7 67.4 63.7 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.1 15.9 16.7 0.6 64.0 60.9 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 15.1 14.8 13.7 0.8 67.1 64.2 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.1 17.4 0.6 65.5 61.5 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.4 16.3 0.6 65.9 61.9 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.2 12.8 0.6 63.4 62.0 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.8 16.4 18.4 0.7 67.7 62.4 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------