***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.5 18.1 1.1 68.6 65.9 14.2 15.3 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.6 18.0 1.1 68.8 66.7 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.3 18.2 1.0 69.2 65.6 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.6 15.6 0.8 66.1 62.1 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 15.8 0.8 65.9 62.5 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.0 13.4 0.9 70.7 64.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 15.5 15.7 18.0 1.1 68.3 65.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.7 13.1 0.7 63.6 61.5 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.2 15.9 0.8 67.4 62.1 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.2 14.1 0.7 64.3 61.2 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 15.2 0.7 65.7 61.4 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.4 14.2 0.8 66.3 62.7 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.7 13.8 0.6 65.0 60.0 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.0 15.7 0.8 65.3 63.2 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.6 17.0 0.7 66.5 60.9 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.0 16.0 14.7 0.7 66.7 61.3 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.1 17.8 1.2 70.4 67.2 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.9 13.4 0.7 64.5 61.6 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.5 18.0 1.2 70.4 67.2 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.5 11.3 0.7 62.0 61.6 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.3 17.2 0.8 67.1 63.0 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.1 17.8 1.2 73.1 67.8 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.3 18.0 1.2 72.7 68.1 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.7 15.6 0.8 66.4 62.5 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 0.9 66.6 63.8 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.4 13.3 0.6 65.5 60.3 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.0 17.4 1.0 67.6 65.1 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.3 15.8 0.7 65.6 60.5 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 0.7 64.1 61.9 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.9 18.2 1.1 68.3 66.4 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------