***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 14.7 15.3 17.6 1.0 66.2 65.7 14.1 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 14.6 15.0 17.6 0.9 63.3 64.0 13.5 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 16.3 16.9 17.7 0.8 63.8 63.0 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 12.4 12.3 15.4 0.9 66.0 64.7 10.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 13.6 13.9 15.9 1.0 66.0 65.7 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.6 13.0 0.7 67.0 65.3 11.6 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 14.7 14.9 17.7 0.9 63.0 63.8 13.8 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 8.1 7.8 13.2 1.0 66.4 67.1 6.0 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.3 16.2 1.2 69.1 69.5 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 14.9 14.7 14.3 1.1 66.6 67.6 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.1 15.6 1.2 68.5 69.2 13.4 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 12.6 12.9 14.2 1.0 66.3 66.8 11.1 11.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 14.3 14.4 14.6 1.2 72.1 71.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 49 51 100 15.3 15.5 15.8 1.0 66.1 66.0 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.3 17.3 1.2 73.4 71.6 14.2 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.2 15.0 1.0 67.4 67.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.3 17.5 1.0 64.2 64.6 14.1 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 12.8 13.7 13.6 1.0 63.7 64.5 11.5 12.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 14.6 14.9 17.5 0.9 62.6 63.5 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 8.3 9.3 11.7 1.0 66.5 65.9 7.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 49 51 100 14.7 14.8 17.1 1.0 66.3 66.1 13.3 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 14.1 14.4 17.5 1.0 63.3 64.0 13.1 13.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 13.9 14.4 17.4 0.9 63.3 63.7 12.6 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 14.5 15.1 15.8 1.0 64.4 65.0 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 14.4 14.5 16.6 0.9 66.3 65.6 13.0 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 13.5 13.6 13.3 0.9 66.6 66.6 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 48 52 100 14.5 14.6 17.1 0.9 66.3 65.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.0 13.9 15.8 0.9 67.4 65.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.8 12.9 1.0 66.0 66.4 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 14.6 15.2 17.7 0.9 63.2 63.4 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------