***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.4 62.6 31.6 31.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 40.7 39.8 31.2 68.7 35.9 33.2 39.3 48.8 63.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 34.9 36.6 28.2 63.7 29.2 31.9 38.5 47.5 66.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 29.7 38.2 25.2 56.8 31.2 31.1 38.5 51.8 79.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 36.9 38.2 25.4 55.3 31.3 30.2 39.1 52.4 61.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 33.6 42.4 39.2 64.6 37.5 33.2 39.2 47.1 53.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 35.3 42.9 32.3 69.7 34.7 33.3 41.7 50.8 64.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 55.1 69.7 31.6 64.1 36.7 33.2 69.3 72.3 113.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 33.1 35.5 27.5 58.4 32.8 30.6 35.8 47.7 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 47.4 57.3 33.2 62.1 34.3 32.2 55.9 75.6 87.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 29.4 32.8 22.9 55.1 33.2 31.6 32.7 41.4 63.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 32.8 37.5 22.3 58.6 34.8 32.3 37.5 53.8 61.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 23.8 27.7 26.4 56.4 34.0 30.5 27.6 42.5 47.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 59.3 69.4 37.8 68.8 38.2 35.7 57.9 79.6 95.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 21.1 19.7 22.5 63.3 37.0 35.0 17.3 39.5 50.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 27.6 31.4 24.5 55.6 33.4 31.0 31.4 46.3 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 31.6 35.9 31.2 70.7 34.6 34.0 35.7 53.5 72.3 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 46.6 49.1 40.7 66.7 36.1 33.5 46.5 62.5 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 39.7 41.6 30.2 67.5 35.4 33.1 39.0 57.9 71.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 43.0 50.5 44.1 68.1 33.7 32.2 49.9 64.0 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 31.1 36.2 25.0 58.6 32.0 31.3 36.5 43.9 65.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 33.6 37.9 30.2 69.4 35.9 34.6 36.5 48.1 73.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 45.1 50.1 30.5 66.8 36.1 33.6 47.1 62.3 70.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 51.7 64.9 35.9 66.7 36.3 33.9 59.4 75.8 86.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 34.2 35.8 30.8 59.9 31.6 30.7 36.9 53.1 71.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 22.6 30.7 21.1 57.1 32.4 31.1 30.9 40.7 51.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 39.7 43.9 32.5 63.9 32.4 32.1 44.2 56.3 78.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 22.2 23.8 24.8 60.7 34.4 33.5 22.5 36.6 46.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 53.7 64.2 42.5 67.8 35.9 33.5 63.5 81.5 108.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 41.8 49.6 30.6 67.3 34.5 32.6 49.1 59.6 71.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------