***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 98.2 67.5 49.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.8 8.5 108.6 71.4 53.8 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.7 7.1 100.8 65.0 49.9 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 20.9 6.5 90.6 66.9 47.1 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.6 12.0 6.6 92.3 63.5 46.2 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.0 18.0 10.9 98.9 65.4 45.8 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.8 8.7 106.7 69.2 53.4 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 33.7 8.7 103.8 63.6 47.3 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.8 7.2 98.1 63.9 46.1 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.7 19.9 8.9 101.6 63.5 47.2 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.5 16.0 6.1 92.3 65.6 46.2 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 7.0 25.4 5.9 98.6 65.6 47.1 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.5 17.0 6.7 90.1 65.7 44.7 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.5 23.2 10.1 111.1 66.1 50.4 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.9 5.9 103.1 66.8 47.8 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.7 18.0 6.4 91.4 65.6 45.7 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.0 17.8 9.0 118.7 72.9 53.9 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.9 25.7 10.9 105.4 62.8 48.7 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.2 8.2 109.6 71.5 53.3 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 21.7 12.0 100.4 57.8 47.1 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.7 6.3 93.9 66.5 46.7 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 16.5 8.8 124.5 76.1 53.6 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.6 16.0 8.0 111.3 69.2 51.9 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.0 16.8 9.3 106.2 65.0 49.8 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.9 7.7 90.5 63.1 47.6 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.5 5.2 98.5 67.2 45.3 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.6 8.2 96.9 64.3 49.2 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.8 6.7 101.6 67.9 47.5 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.7 20.1 11.4 102.5 60.4 47.9 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.9 13.4 8.1 104.0 69.0 52.0 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------