***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 65.4 55.8 40.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 4.7 11.5 7.6 66.8 52.1 37.7 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.8 10.6 7.6 66.9 48.5 38.2 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.1 6.8 62.8 54.1 42.6 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.7 7.0 61.3 51.5 40.3 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.1 8.3 11.6 77.7 56.8 40.5 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.8 16.3 7.7 69.0 50.3 39.1 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.9 15.0 8.7 69.2 50.3 40.9 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.6 7.7 62.7 50.4 39.2 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 13.2 9.6 70.7 50.6 40.6 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.4 6.5 65.5 51.4 41.1 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.9 10.3 6.0 64.4 52.7 39.9 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.6 6.8 7.6 70.7 55.2 39.0 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.1 13.8 9.9 70.9 50.0 38.6 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.9 4.7 5.9 67.7 62.3 44.7 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.3 7.9 7.0 69.9 55.5 40.3 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.7 7.9 69.6 50.5 39.5 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.9 10.7 11.9 74.7 50.3 40.1 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.3 9.9 7.6 67.0 51.8 37.5 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.3 11.7 12.6 73.9 48.6 39.2 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.1 6.9 61.8 52.5 39.4 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.6 11.5 7.9 67.5 49.9 39.8 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.7 8.1 69.7 51.5 38.3 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.3 10.2 72.9 50.0 38.9 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.0 11.4 8.0 63.4 54.2 39.9 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.0 5.9 67.8 53.4 38.8 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.5 13.6 8.2 67.9 55.5 40.5 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.5 5.7 6.9 70.6 58.8 44.2 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 18.1 12.3 76.4 50.7 40.4 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 6.1 9.5 7.4 66.0 51.6 37.8 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------