***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.6 85.8 57.5 44.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 14.1 11.3 84.5 53.6 46.4 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 6.7 12.6 9.5 77.7 53.8 42.9 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.6 7.9 63.3 52.2 41.9 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.9 7.9 62.9 54.0 42.7 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.0 4.2 11.5 61.4 46.6 42.4 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.2 12.3 90.2 55.6 47.4 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 22.5 20.8 9.7 72.9 58.3 48.7 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.1 8.6 66.1 52.1 41.1 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.5 10.2 69.3 54.8 45.6 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.7 7.2 63.1 57.3 45.7 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.3 7.1 68.8 57.9 47.8 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.7 8.4 62.0 53.9 43.9 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.7 12.9 78.2 56.0 47.5 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.0 7.1 68.7 55.9 42.9 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.7 7.5 59.1 52.9 42.8 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.4 11.9 11.0 82.4 52.8 46.6 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 15.1 12.6 72.4 52.6 46.6 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.2 10.4 10.5 80.0 52.5 45.2 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 12.7 13.6 73.2 51.7 45.4 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 6.1 9.4 8.0 71.0 52.5 41.3 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.1 10.2 77.4 52.6 46.7 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.6 13.9 10.2 76.0 52.8 44.3 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.6 21.6 11.7 75.0 54.6 46.3 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 6.1 11.6 10.5 77.8 53.5 42.0 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.9 7.1 67.9 59.4 45.5 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.2 14.9 11.5 86.2 55.9 43.9 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.1 7.3 61.3 52.8 42.6 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 16.3 13.3 73.1 52.9 46.8 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.7 16.6 11.2 85.6 53.6 45.9 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------