***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 26.1 33.3 24.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 4.9 2.8 3.7 29.3 31.8 22.2 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 3.9 7.2 4.0 29.5 31.5 23.3 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.9 4.6 4.0 29.1 38.0 25.5 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 2.6 1.4 3.9 26.3 30.9 22.9 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.1 5.6 5.2 32.6 39.8 26.8 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.0 0.9 3.6 27.0 29.1 21.6 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 2.8 2.7 4.5 30.5 31.8 24.8 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.3 4.2 4.0 27.8 30.5 24.0 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.9 4.0 4.6 28.0 28.4 23.7 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 2.6 1.5 3.2 23.2 31.9 22.5 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.2 1.1 3.3 26.9 34.0 24.3 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.9 1.2 3.7 24.6 28.2 22.1 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 5.4 6.2 4.9 31.9 31.4 22.5 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.1 2.1 3.6 33.5 44.1 26.9 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.0 1.1 3.5 24.7 31.6 22.0 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.8 2.8 3.3 28.2 30.0 22.4 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.4 1.5 5.3 30.6 28.0 24.0 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.9 30.4 32.5 22.5 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 4.0 4.2 6.0 34.9 30.5 24.0 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.9 7.5 3.8 28.2 34.6 23.7 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.1 5.9 3.3 28.7 31.4 23.2 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 5.1 7.5 4.1 30.9 31.6 22.6 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 6.5 4.5 4.7 30.5 30.4 23.4 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 4.0 6.6 4.6 27.3 34.7 23.1 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.3 2.9 23.3 30.5 21.8 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 5.4 6.2 4.5 26.8 34.6 24.2 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.6 2.6 3.8 30.7 40.3 26.2 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.8 3.4 5.6 32.2 27.4 24.0 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 3.3 3.5 4.0 29.4 31.1 23.2 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------