***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 0.0 29.7 2.2 91.6 85.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 28.6 30.3 30.1 2.6 94.0 87.2 26.9 27.3 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 28.6 29.8 30.1 2.5 92.4 87.2 26.8 27.5 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 21.8 23.3 28.0 2.2 89.9 85.9 19.9 20.4 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 29.1 31.2 28.3 2.4 90.6 87.7 27.0 28.0 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 27.7 29.6 25.9 2.3 91.4 87.8 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 28.2 30.1 29.7 2.3 92.6 84.8 27.0 27.2 27.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 17.0 19.0 26.6 2.5 92.3 89.2 15.3 15.8 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 28.5 30.5 28.7 2.4 90.5 88.3 26.6 27.5 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 28.6 30.6 27.3 2.5 91.4 88.9 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 28.7 31.1 28.0 2.5 93.4 89.5 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 27.9 30.1 27.6 2.6 92.6 89.8 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 29.2 31.0 27.3 2.6 91.4 89.8 27.0 27.9 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 28.2 29.1 27.9 2.0 84.1 81.9 26.4 27.2 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 29.8 31.5 28.8 2.2 92.4 87.3 28.0 28.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 29.8 31.8 27.7 2.5 91.8 89.1 27.5 28.4 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 27.9 29.4 29.6 2.3 91.9 84.7 26.3 26.9 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 27.7 29.5 26.3 2.4 89.9 87.8 25.7 26.4 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 28.4 29.6 30.3 2.7 93.8 87.8 26.2 26.8 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 23.4 24.9 24.3 2.4 90.8 88.4 21.5 22.2 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 28.8 30.2 29.4 2.3 89.7 86.5 26.8 27.7 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 28.7 29.7 29.3 2.2 88.0 83.2 26.6 27.0 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 28.4 29.9 30.0 2.6 91.8 87.0 26.7 27.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 27.9 29.6 28.1 2.3 88.5 85.6 26.2 26.7 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 28.5 30.7 28.2 2.1 90.0 84.3 27.2 27.5 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 28.8 30.3 27.2 2.6 91.2 89.1 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 28.0 29.5 28.7 2.1 89.9 83.6 26.6 26.9 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 29.8 31.8 28.3 2.1 90.5 85.9 27.8 28.7 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 23.0 24.8 25.3 2.4 89.7 87.5 21.0 21.6 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 28.3 30.1 30.2 2.6 94.4 87.3 26.7 27.1 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------