***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 29.5 1.3 72.4 65.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 29.1 30.0 29.9 1.7 76.1 68.2 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.8 29.7 1.5 74.5 66.6 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 22.2 22.5 28.0 1.3 70.4 65.5 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.8 28.0 1.4 72.7 66.6 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 28.4 29.2 25.9 1.5 73.2 67.1 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 29.1 29.2 29.6 1.5 72.5 67.1 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.4 18.0 26.3 1.6 77.5 67.4 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.5 28.2 1.5 74.1 66.8 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.5 26.9 1.5 76.5 67.2 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 29.0 29.9 27.7 1.6 77.5 68.5 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.2 29.1 27.5 1.6 77.7 68.0 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 29.4 30.2 27.0 1.6 75.0 67.4 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 28.8 28.5 27.5 1.1 69.0 61.7 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 30.0 30.8 28.6 1.4 74.2 67.7 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.9 30.6 27.5 1.5 74.6 67.5 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 28.7 29.2 29.5 1.6 73.4 67.3 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.5 25.8 1.4 74.0 65.2 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 28.8 29.8 30.0 1.7 76.4 68.1 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.6 24.4 23.8 1.4 74.8 65.4 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.6 29.1 1.4 72.6 65.9 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.2 29.2 29.3 1.4 71.0 65.7 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 29.2 30.0 29.6 1.5 73.4 66.5 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.9 27.6 1.3 72.3 64.4 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 29.7 29.5 27.9 1.2 70.6 64.7 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 28.9 29.7 27.1 1.5 73.1 66.7 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 29.1 29.1 28.5 1.2 71.2 64.4 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 30.2 30.9 28.3 1.3 70.2 65.9 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.4 24.7 1.3 72.6 64.3 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 29.0 30.0 30.0 1.6 75.8 67.9 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------