***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 28.8 1.2 67.7 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 29.4 29.2 29.1 1.5 70.2 64.7 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.7 29.1 1.5 70.9 63.9 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.0 22.9 27.4 1.3 69.7 63.3 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.3 27.5 1.4 71.5 64.2 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.7 25.5 1.7 75.3 67.5 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.7 29.1 28.8 1.2 67.2 62.4 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 18.6 25.9 1.6 76.3 65.0 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 29.6 29.9 27.8 1.5 72.0 64.0 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.8 29.9 26.5 1.5 74.2 64.3 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.8 27.2 1.7 76.5 66.3 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.5 27.0 1.7 76.5 66.6 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.2 26.6 1.8 76.3 67.7 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.5 26.9 1.0 63.7 60.1 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 30.8 30.8 28.1 1.4 72.5 65.7 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.5 27.0 1.6 76.1 66.6 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.8 28.5 1.2 68.3 62.3 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.9 28.9 25.5 1.4 71.4 62.7 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 28.9 28.9 29.3 1.6 70.9 65.3 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 24.8 23.5 1.4 72.9 63.5 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 29.6 29.8 28.5 1.4 70.0 62.9 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.1 28.3 1.1 64.4 60.9 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 29.2 29.0 29.0 1.5 69.6 64.2 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.8 27.1 1.3 68.8 61.9 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 29.8 29.7 27.3 1.1 67.7 61.3 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.3 26.7 1.8 74.9 67.1 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.1 27.8 1.0 67.4 60.3 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.0 27.8 1.4 70.8 64.4 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 24.0 24.4 1.3 70.2 62.4 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.2 29.3 1.5 69.7 64.5 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------