***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 28.8 1.6 70.3 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.3 29.2 1.9 75.0 69.1 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.9 29.3 1.9 72.9 68.4 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 22.0 22.5 27.5 1.7 70.9 68.2 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.5 27.6 1.9 74.3 69.4 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.2 29.1 25.6 2.1 75.2 72.4 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 28.9 28.4 28.9 1.6 71.9 66.9 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.7 18.8 26.1 2.3 78.8 72.4 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.6 30.3 28.0 2.0 74.0 69.3 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.1 30.2 26.7 2.2 77.4 70.9 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.4 27.4 2.2 77.9 72.2 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 28.1 29.2 27.2 2.4 78.2 73.4 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 29.4 30.5 26.7 2.3 76.6 73.3 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.9 27.2 1.6 67.5 65.6 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 29.9 30.7 28.0 1.7 74.9 69.6 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 30.0 31.0 27.1 2.2 75.1 72.3 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.9 28.7 1.7 74.1 67.3 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.3 29.4 25.8 2.1 76.6 69.8 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 28.6 29.0 29.4 2.1 74.6 69.9 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 25.0 23.8 2.2 77.0 71.3 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 29.3 30.1 28.7 1.8 72.1 67.8 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 28.8 28.1 28.4 1.6 71.0 66.3 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.0 29.1 2.0 72.3 69.2 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 28.6 29.4 27.4 1.9 72.1 67.9 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.7 27.3 1.5 69.0 65.6 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.3 30.3 26.7 2.3 79.4 73.5 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 28.5 28.5 27.8 1.4 67.9 64.6 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 29.9 30.3 27.8 1.8 72.2 69.4 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 23.8 24.6 24.8 2.1 76.1 69.8 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.3 29.3 1.9 73.9 68.9 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------