***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 0.0 18.7 1.5 92.4 85.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 15.9 17.3 19.0 1.6 93.8 87.0 14.3 15.1 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 17.4 19.5 18.9 1.7 95.3 88.0 16.6 16.8 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 12.6 14.6 16.9 1.4 94.0 87.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 14.3 15.2 16.7 1.4 94.9 86.7 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.1 13.8 14.9 1.5 94.5 89.7 12.4 12.8 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.6 18.9 1.5 91.3 84.6 14.8 15.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 8.5 9.8 15.1 1.7 96.2 90.7 7.5 7.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 15.6 16.4 17.1 1.5 94.9 88.2 14.4 15.0 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 15.4 16.1 15.7 1.6 95.8 89.5 14.5 14.8 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.3 16.2 16.4 1.6 95.8 90.9 14.5 14.8 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.3 14.6 15.9 1.7 96.5 91.4 12.3 12.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 14.6 15.2 15.3 1.3 92.7 87.0 13.9 14.2 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 16.0 16.6 16.8 1.1 85.9 79.6 15.2 15.5 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.5 17.8 1.5 95.5 89.3 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 15.6 16.6 15.9 1.4 94.5 88.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.3 17.4 18.6 1.5 89.9 84.7 15.2 15.7 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 14.1 14.5 14.8 1.4 92.5 86.4 13.1 13.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.8 19.0 1.7 94.7 87.7 14.8 15.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 9.9 10.5 13.1 1.6 93.6 88.5 9.0 9.3 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 15.3 16.0 18.2 1.5 94.7 87.4 14.3 14.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 15.3 16.2 18.4 1.3 89.3 82.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 14.9 16.1 18.7 1.6 94.4 87.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.8 16.7 1.4 92.2 84.8 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 15.3 15.7 17.3 1.3 90.9 84.6 14.4 14.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 14.3 14.5 15.2 1.3 89.0 86.9 13.4 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 15.3 15.9 17.9 1.3 88.6 83.4 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 14.6 15.3 17.2 1.4 94.6 87.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 12.6 13.5 14.1 1.5 92.6 86.5 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 15.9 17.5 19.2 1.7 94.9 87.5 15.0 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------