***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 18.8 1.1 77.3 69.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 16.6 17.4 19.1 1.3 80.2 73.2 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 18.3 19.1 18.9 1.2 77.9 71.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.3 14.2 16.9 0.9 76.1 66.7 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.7 16.7 1.0 75.4 67.5 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.8 14.8 1.0 77.9 70.0 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.7 19.0 1.2 76.7 71.3 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 8.9 9.5 15.0 1.1 78.3 68.2 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.3 17.0 1.1 76.7 67.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.1 15.6 1.1 78.6 67.9 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.2 16.3 1.2 81.4 71.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.9 16.0 1.1 79.5 70.4 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.6 15.4 1.0 77.2 70.9 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.7 16.6 0.7 69.3 62.4 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.6 17.7 1.1 80.8 70.3 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.3 17.0 16.0 1.1 79.9 70.8 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.2 17.6 18.7 1.2 76.9 71.0 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.6 14.8 0.9 75.6 65.7 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.8 19.1 1.4 80.3 73.1 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.3 13.1 0.9 71.7 65.0 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.7 16.1 18.0 1.1 75.3 68.0 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.7 18.5 1.1 75.6 69.4 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.5 18.7 1.2 76.8 71.0 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.5 16.6 0.9 73.0 65.7 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.9 16.1 17.2 1.0 75.2 67.7 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.6 15.5 1.0 73.9 68.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 15.6 16.3 17.9 1.0 76.8 68.1 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.4 17.2 0.9 78.1 67.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.1 14.0 0.9 73.4 64.3 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.6 17.6 19.2 1.3 80.2 73.2 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------