***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 18.2 0.8 68.0 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.7 18.4 0.9 68.9 62.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.5 18.2 18.3 0.9 68.4 63.4 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.6 16.5 0.8 68.6 62.7 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.4 16.3 0.9 71.1 64.2 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.9 14.0 14.6 1.0 70.8 66.1 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 18.3 0.7 66.3 60.0 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.1 14.6 1.0 72.4 64.2 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.5 16.6 1.0 72.5 64.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.3 15.1 1.0 73.3 64.4 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.5 15.9 1.1 75.0 66.3 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.9 13.9 15.6 1.1 73.1 65.9 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.6 15.1 1.1 71.4 66.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.6 16.2 0.6 63.9 58.1 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.4 17.3 1.0 72.4 64.7 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.7 16.9 15.7 1.1 73.4 66.5 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.5 17.9 0.6 63.4 58.7 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.5 14.4 0.9 70.5 62.6 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.3 18.4 0.9 69.2 62.8 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.9 12.7 0.9 70.6 62.0 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.1 17.6 0.9 70.4 63.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.7 17.7 0.5 60.3 57.2 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.6 18.1 0.9 68.0 62.5 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.7 16.2 0.8 67.4 61.7 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 16.7 0.7 65.2 61.0 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.0 15.2 1.1 70.6 66.6 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.1 17.3 0.6 64.8 59.6 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 16.8 0.9 69.4 63.9 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.6 13.6 0.8 68.6 61.6 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.4 18.5 0.9 68.8 62.7 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------