***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 18.5 1.0 74.5 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.7 18.7 1.1 73.0 66.5 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.9 18.6 1.2 75.5 69.0 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.8 16.6 1.0 76.4 68.2 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.6 16.5 1.2 78.1 69.5 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.3 13.7 14.7 1.2 78.3 71.1 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 15.5 15.7 18.5 0.9 71.4 64.2 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.4 14.8 1.3 76.3 71.2 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.0 16.9 1.3 79.9 70.1 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.8 15.4 1.3 76.6 70.4 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.6 16.1 1.4 78.4 71.9 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.7 14.1 15.8 1.4 78.9 73.1 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.2 15.3 1.4 79.5 73.6 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.1 16.6 0.9 67.9 64.9 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 16.5 16.9 17.4 1.2 78.6 70.8 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.3 15.9 1.3 79.4 72.3 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.1 18.2 0.9 69.5 63.1 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.4 14.7 1.2 75.3 69.8 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.6 18.7 1.2 73.7 67.8 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.9 13.0 1.3 75.6 70.5 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.5 17.9 1.2 75.2 69.3 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.8 18.0 0.8 67.1 62.2 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.4 18.4 1.2 74.0 68.1 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.9 16.5 1.1 72.4 68.0 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.4 17.0 1.0 73.2 66.5 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.4 15.5 1.5 81.5 75.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.2 17.7 0.9 71.9 65.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 1.1 78.7 69.5 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 1.1 73.9 69.0 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.7 16.1 18.8 1.2 74.3 67.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------