***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 19.4 2.9 95.7 92.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 15.8 18.7 19.9 3.3 97.6 94.6 13.5 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 17.6 20.5 19.8 3.2 96.6 94.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 12.9 15.6 17.6 2.9 96.2 94.0 10.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 14.2 16.1 17.4 2.6 94.6 91.3 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.2 14.5 15.3 2.6 92.9 91.8 11.6 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 16.0 18.0 19.7 3.0 96.1 92.8 13.8 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 8.9 11.9 15.9 3.3 99.4 96.8 6.0 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 15.7 17.5 18.0 2.8 96.5 93.4 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.6 17.6 16.6 3.1 97.6 95.2 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.4 17.2 3.0 98.0 94.9 13.4 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.3 15.5 16.4 3.0 99.0 95.9 11.1 11.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.4 15.0 15.3 1.9 86.7 84.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 16.1 17.3 17.8 2.5 90.4 89.7 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.4 18.7 18.7 2.8 97.4 95.5 14.2 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 15.6 16.5 16.2 2.2 90.7 88.2 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 16.3 19.3 19.5 3.2 97.2 94.0 14.1 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 14.2 15.5 15.4 2.7 94.9 92.9 11.5 12.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.8 18.1 20.0 3.3 98.0 94.9 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 9.7 11.9 13.8 3.3 99.2 96.6 7.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 15.2 16.8 19.2 2.9 95.0 93.1 13.3 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 15.7 17.0 19.4 2.9 92.9 91.3 13.1 13.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 14.9 17.0 19.8 3.3 97.2 94.4 12.6 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 15.7 17.2 17.6 2.7 92.3 91.6 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.8 18.2 2.6 94.2 91.7 13.0 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 1.6 80.3 81.2 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 15.2 16.4 18.6 2.6 92.7 90.8 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 14.4 16.4 17.9 2.7 95.1 93.2 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 12.7 15.7 15.0 3.1 97.9 95.4 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.0 18.4 20.1 3.3 97.7 94.7 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------