***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 56.4 50.6 56.9 97.4 53.7 50.2 33.6 49.3 64.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 55.3 61.9 56.1 107.4 62.8 55.3 42.8 50.2 64.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 61.6 67.7 60.1 101.6 58.5 53.0 41.6 53.7 70.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 35.2 68.3 52.1 93.4 55.6 47.0 38.7 56.1 82.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 39.3 53.6 52.2 91.4 52.0 47.2 39.2 52.7 66.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 52.4 45.9 57.6 92.4 50.8 45.0 33.4 45.8 56.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 58.4 60.7 55.0 106.2 61.1 54.8 39.1 51.1 65.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 94.1 80.1 63.7 94.4 53.4 49.1 61.8 78.9 114.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 59.5 52.8 59.7 96.7 54.4 49.7 40.2 52.3 66.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 53.0 81.7 66.6 92.5 50.9 48.0 62.3 80.4 92.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 60.0 52.3 50.1 90.4 51.1 47.6 34.1 51.7 69.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 58.2 54.1 50.3 92.5 53.7 48.7 33.9 52.6 64.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.0 44.0 49.1 85.6 53.3 44.7 33.3 42.0 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 96.1 95.5 72.0 94.4 53.0 49.4 60.2 88.5 107.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 23.4 47.8 42.4 89.3 58.1 45.5 27.5 42.8 50.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 51.4 46.6 48.1 88.5 52.5 46.1 34.5 45.2 52.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 54.2 59.1 55.4 109.0 63.6 57.8 35.9 48.9 61.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 50.0 66.2 75.8 93.6 51.6 48.3 48.5 64.0 87.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 63.4 62.6 57.9 107.3 62.7 55.3 41.7 54.6 69.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 49.0 69.8 75.5 94.2 51.8 48.3 57.6 67.6 78.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 64.9 61.9 58.3 95.8 55.1 49.9 37.9 57.0 71.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 57.9 74.1 57.4 109.9 66.0 57.7 40.6 47.3 74.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 66.3 70.9 59.4 103.2 59.8 54.3 51.4 61.8 78.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 87.4 83.0 67.9 94.5 54.8 49.9 70.6 79.9 92.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 64.0 57.0 57.7 91.7 51.5 46.0 36.5 56.8 67.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 46.7 47.5 43.6 92.6 55.8 49.1 32.6 43.5 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 69.7 65.4 58.9 94.8 51.7 47.8 51.3 63.2 79.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 25.9 47.4 49.1 92.8 56.9 47.7 22.9 40.8 56.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 59.2 84.3 76.0 91.6 50.5 46.6 65.0 82.1 119.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 67.7 70.9 56.0 104.3 59.9 53.5 49.2 62.1 73.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------