***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 1.2 6.9 11.4 98.3 64.0 44.5 2.2 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.2 10.4 9.9 90.2 60.5 43.0 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.3 8.3 12.2 103.4 64.3 44.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.2 23.2 10.1 97.3 67.2 44.8 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.7 10.0 95.2 64.7 45.0 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.5 12.0 102.3 67.8 46.6 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.7 5.3 9.1 81.9 57.7 41.2 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.2 30.7 11.7 88.4 58.5 45.5 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.0 8.9 11.6 100.8 65.9 44.6 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.2 16.9 13.0 92.5 60.7 44.9 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.3 13.8 9.0 93.9 65.7 45.0 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.2 18.0 9.1 91.0 62.9 45.9 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 15.3 9.7 90.2 63.9 44.3 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.2 22.4 13.7 81.7 58.5 43.0 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.0 8.0 8.0 101.1 69.8 45.3 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.2 16.8 9.3 93.4 65.0 44.1 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.4 7.8 69.7 54.5 40.1 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 22.4 14.9 86.6 56.8 44.2 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.6 10.1 10.4 92.4 62.2 43.1 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 17.4 14.1 79.5 53.4 44.2 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.8 11.8 103.0 66.0 45.0 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.3 10.3 8.3 71.3 55.8 38.9 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.8 16.0 10.7 88.7 62.6 42.6 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.0 15.1 13.3 88.6 58.4 43.7 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.6 10.6 11.5 96.0 65.5 45.3 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.0 7.2 89.4 64.5 43.6 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.6 15.1 11.5 94.1 63.1 44.3 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.9 9.7 101.4 68.2 46.1 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.0 18.7 14.6 79.7 54.0 43.0 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.4 11.7 10.8 96.3 62.3 42.8 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------