***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.4 12.4 9.9 83.0 57.1 45.8 4.3 10.2 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 13.1 8.8 84.2 57.7 47.0 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.8 13.0 9.6 80.0 56.7 45.6 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.7 9.9 89.4 63.2 50.3 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.5 8.1 69.9 56.6 44.3 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.6 12.2 91.9 61.0 49.2 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.5 14.6 8.3 78.6 54.6 46.0 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.0 13.5 9.9 68.1 51.7 45.5 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.1 9.2 68.9 55.6 45.3 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 13.5 10.4 65.7 52.0 44.4 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 7.5 69.6 56.7 45.9 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.3 7.3 64.0 53.6 44.5 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.8 9.2 74.7 58.4 46.5 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 11.7 13.4 81.3 55.5 46.1 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 5.6 8.7 93.7 67.9 48.9 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.3 8.2 73.3 58.0 45.7 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.8 9.0 82.1 55.2 47.6 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 11.6 13.8 75.9 53.2 46.5 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 9.1 9.2 85.1 58.8 47.7 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 12.6 14.7 84.3 55.3 48.4 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.2 10.0 79.9 57.7 47.1 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.3 10.7 90.5 61.1 49.9 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.8 14.2 9.4 81.7 58.7 47.8 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.7 12.2 78.9 55.4 46.2 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 11.1 85.2 58.1 47.8 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.8 6.3 66.7 58.2 42.1 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 10.8 83.3 56.8 45.9 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.4 9.6 9.3 89.6 64.7 49.4 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 15.7 15.0 79.9 54.1 47.0 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.3 9.8 8.8 82.5 56.3 45.1 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------