***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.5 16.5 104.8 63.1 48.7 5.2 8.5 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.8 18.3 16.8 113.7 66.1 49.8 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.1 17.8 16.9 100.6 63.8 48.3 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.8 17.1 101.0 66.4 49.2 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.1 15.0 15.4 95.6 62.9 46.3 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.2 17.2 100.8 63.0 49.1 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.2 12.0 16.2 111.5 66.6 48.1 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.5 21.9 16.8 101.2 62.6 50.0 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 11.9 18.0 103.4 64.7 48.4 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.0 17.9 99.4 61.7 49.5 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.5 8.7 15.4 97.8 62.3 47.2 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.3 13.6 13.5 94.0 59.7 46.7 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.2 14.5 92.8 61.2 47.6 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.2 21.7 19.8 98.7 62.2 46.5 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.7 14.8 16.0 107.5 70.3 48.6 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.8 14.0 90.6 60.6 45.7 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.8 16.2 15.0 104.7 67.7 47.8 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.2 19.5 95.7 60.3 48.5 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 15.5 17.3 115.6 66.6 51.2 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.5 18.5 95.1 58.5 49.7 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.2 17.0 97.2 62.2 47.9 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.9 15.1 106.4 67.5 49.2 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.5 17.9 18.1 113.0 68.3 51.6 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.6 21.0 18.7 97.1 61.1 48.7 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.3 12.8 18.1 100.4 63.7 47.6 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.2 6.3 11.0 83.7 55.7 40.0 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.3 15.6 18.1 103.7 64.4 47.8 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.8 8.9 15.5 99.9 67.0 48.9 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 20.0 21.2 100.8 62.3 51.0 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.4 20.2 16.1 105.8 62.7 47.4 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------