***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 13.0 22.0 19.2 99.7 65.7 64.4 7.1 11.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 22.0 20.9 20.6 129.1 71.9 70.3 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 27.6 32.3 21.5 115.4 70.2 67.2 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.3 12.0 15.0 85.9 57.7 54.6 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 12.1 24.1 18.6 98.8 62.9 59.7 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 19.9 19.1 16.1 80.7 54.2 50.2 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 26.6 27.8 21.4 137.7 76.1 72.9 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 20.9 31.2 25.3 110.8 65.0 61.8 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 14.5 20.2 21.0 107.3 64.8 62.5 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 17.8 29.6 25.3 105.7 63.5 60.9 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.5 22.0 18.1 94.3 61.8 57.6 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.8 20.0 20.3 111.4 66.3 62.4 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 16.1 15.8 83.9 56.3 52.5 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 23.4 34.2 25.1 108.4 67.3 63.3 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 6.6 4.6 9.6 62.8 55.4 51.7 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 13.7 18.6 16.6 93.4 60.8 55.5 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 23.7 29.4 23.6 164.2 80.8 76.5 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 13.3 20.2 27.7 109.6 63.9 61.9 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 21.9 23.8 20.9 124.3 71.1 68.8 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 18.1 20.2 28.2 110.9 62.5 61.4 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 11.3 17.7 19.5 100.7 62.5 61.6 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 16.5 18.2 23.2 161.1 77.4 74.4 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 20.6 18.1 21.1 117.9 71.9 67.7 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 23.2 32.3 23.8 107.2 66.4 63.3 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 11.0 11.8 17.0 85.4 59.7 57.3 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 15.2 21.4 19.1 118.3 65.9 64.3 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 17.7 24.4 18.5 95.3 63.4 61.4 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 9.8 16.0 14.6 83.0 59.0 54.6 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 20.6 24.2 25.3 100.9 59.7 58.8 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 23.7 26.6 20.3 122.4 70.9 69.4 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------