***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.5 29.0 1.3 75.0 68.9 27.1 27.4 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 28.3 28.1 28.7 0.9 68.4 63.8 26.8 27.2 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 28.2 28.6 29.3 1.5 77.1 70.1 26.6 27.3 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 21.5 22.1 27.1 1.7 82.1 73.1 19.9 20.4 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 28.8 29.2 27.7 1.6 80.2 72.6 26.9 27.9 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 27.5 28.8 25.3 1.8 86.7 76.8 25.7 26.4 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 28.0 27.8 28.6 0.8 64.8 62.6 26.9 27.2 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.8 25.3 1.3 76.2 69.6 15.1 15.7 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 28.3 29.0 28.2 1.8 83.1 74.2 26.3 27.4 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 28.2 28.8 26.3 1.5 79.6 71.5 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 28.4 29.2 27.7 1.8 82.3 74.6 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 27.6 28.4 27.0 1.8 82.7 74.5 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 28.7 30.1 27.0 2.0 87.4 77.4 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 27.8 27.7 26.8 0.8 69.1 63.2 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.1 29.2 2.1 86.1 78.2 28.0 28.3 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 29.5 31.2 27.5 2.1 87.8 77.7 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 27.6 27.7 28.7 1.1 69.3 66.1 26.3 26.8 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.3 27.5 25.1 1.1 71.2 66.9 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 28.0 28.0 28.9 1.1 72.0 65.5 26.2 26.8 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.1 22.7 22.5 0.7 65.0 62.9 21.4 22.1 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 28.4 28.8 28.8 1.4 77.1 70.5 26.7 27.6 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.5 28.3 28.5 1.1 71.6 66.5 26.6 27.1 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.3 28.9 1.3 76.3 68.4 26.5 27.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 27.5 27.8 27.0 1.1 71.6 66.8 26.1 26.5 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.5 27.5 1.2 74.4 68.7 27.0 27.4 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 28.5 29.3 26.7 2.0 86.4 77.8 26.6 27.5 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 27.8 28.1 28.1 1.2 74.5 68.2 26.5 26.8 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.3 28.0 2.0 85.7 76.5 27.5 28.6 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 22.6 22.8 24.0 0.9 68.2 65.3 20.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.0 28.8 1.0 70.1 64.8 26.7 26.9 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------