***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 29.8 29.4 29.6 0.8 63.8 57.5 26.5 27.7 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.4 29.6 0.8 64.9 57.7 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.6 30.1 1.2 68.6 60.6 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.7 22.4 28.0 1.1 67.9 58.2 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.0 28.2 1.1 66.3 58.7 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.7 28.6 25.6 1.0 66.2 59.1 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.4 28.8 29.3 0.6 60.8 55.5 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.7 26.1 1.0 65.3 58.4 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.1 29.4 28.5 1.3 67.9 60.5 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.0 27.0 1.1 67.2 59.7 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.2 28.0 1.3 69.0 60.3 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 28.5 28.7 27.8 1.3 68.3 60.7 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.3 26.9 1.2 66.1 60.1 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.3 28.4 27.1 0.6 62.6 55.9 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 30.4 31.1 29.3 1.4 74.1 61.1 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.6 27.8 1.4 70.7 61.3 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 28.6 28.9 29.6 1.0 65.7 58.8 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.4 27.7 25.9 0.8 62.8 57.6 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.0 29.8 1.0 66.6 59.0 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.9 23.3 23.0 0.3 57.4 53.7 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 26.6 29.3 29.1 0.9 65.5 58.1 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.3 29.5 1.1 66.1 59.9 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.4 29.7 1.1 67.4 60.1 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 28.5 28.5 27.5 0.9 64.6 58.2 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.0 29.5 27.8 0.6 62.4 55.3 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.0 27.5 1.4 70.4 62.5 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 26.2 28.0 28.5 0.6 62.1 55.8 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 30.4 31.0 28.5 1.3 71.8 60.3 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.9 24.6 0.6 60.6 55.8 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.3 28.9 29.6 0.8 64.1 57.6 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------