***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.5 0.4 62.4 54.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.0 28.1 0.0 56.5 51.1 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.4 29.0 0.7 64.0 56.3 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 19.9 22.9 27.2 1.0 66.2 59.1 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 27.8 30.5 27.4 0.9 66.5 58.7 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.6 25.3 1.3 70.2 62.3 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.8 27.9 -0.2 53.5 49.1 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.5 18.2 25.4 0.7 64.1 57.0 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 29.2 30.3 27.7 1.0 67.9 59.4 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.9 30.1 26.2 0.8 65.6 58.0 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.4 27.3 1.1 69.3 60.9 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.5 27.2 1.2 69.9 61.2 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.1 26.5 1.3 70.1 62.4 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.4 25.9 -0.3 48.7 47.3 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.1 28.6 1.4 71.3 63.2 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 31.4 31.7 27.3 1.5 71.6 63.6 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.6 28.4 28.0 0.0 56.6 50.8 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.1 28.8 25.0 0.3 59.0 53.7 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.3 28.3 0.2 57.9 52.2 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.9 22.2 -0.1 52.7 50.0 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.3 29.8 28.3 0.7 64.4 56.4 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.0 29.2 27.8 0.0 56.5 50.8 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.6 28.3 0.2 59.1 52.9 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 26.6 28.2 26.5 0.2 56.9 52.5 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.3 26.9 0.4 61.2 53.7 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.2 27.1 1.6 75.4 65.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.8 27.5 0.3 60.2 53.0 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.0 31.3 27.9 1.4 70.5 62.6 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.3 23.7 0.0 53.5 50.9 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.7 28.3 0.1 57.7 52.0 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------