***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 28.9 29.6 29.1 1.6 73.4 67.6 25.8 27.2 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 28.6 28.4 28.7 1.0 65.4 62.2 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.9 29.5 1.7 74.9 68.2 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.0 22.9 27.2 2.2 81.8 72.9 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.4 28.0 2.1 78.8 71.7 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 28.1 30.5 25.9 2.5 86.7 76.5 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.8 28.5 0.9 64.0 60.8 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 17.6 18.5 25.6 1.8 77.1 69.4 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.6 28.7 2.2 80.5 72.9 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 29.1 30.0 26.7 2.0 78.4 70.5 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 29.3 30.5 28.2 2.3 80.8 73.1 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 28.4 29.8 27.4 2.4 82.4 74.0 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 30.0 31.3 27.8 2.7 86.5 77.5 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 28.6 28.4 27.1 1.0 66.6 61.9 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 29.9 30.6 29.5 2.6 83.3 76.2 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 30.3 32.3 28.0 2.7 85.7 76.5 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 28.1 27.6 28.6 1.2 66.9 63.3 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 28.2 28.8 25.4 1.5 73.4 66.3 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.8 28.9 1.2 68.5 63.8 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.8 24.7 23.0 1.3 69.8 64.4 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.9 29.2 1.8 76.3 69.7 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.3 28.4 1.2 68.0 63.4 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.8 29.1 29.1 1.5 73.0 66.3 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.8 27.4 1.4 71.8 65.6 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.4 27.8 1.6 73.4 68.1 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 29.2 31.6 27.1 2.8 87.8 77.8 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.9 28.3 1.5 72.0 67.0 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.8 28.3 2.5 84.8 75.6 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.8 23.4 24.5 1.4 72.0 65.3 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 28.5 28.9 28.8 1.1 66.8 63.2 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------