***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 28.6 28.8 28.8 2.4 72.8 71.5 25.6 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 27.1 28.1 28.6 1.8 67.4 66.8 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.6 28.7 2.2 69.3 69.4 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 22.1 21.7 26.0 2.6 73.7 74.8 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 29.1 28.9 27.1 2.5 69.9 72.0 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 27.2 27.7 24.5 2.4 72.6 73.5 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 28.1 28.2 28.5 1.9 68.3 68.1 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 16.1 15.9 24.0 1.7 66.8 66.9 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 28.7 28.7 28.1 2.7 73.9 74.3 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 28.4 25.5 2.1 70.1 69.7 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 28.8 28.5 27.3 2.5 70.8 72.5 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 27.4 27.2 25.7 2.2 70.4 71.3 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 28.7 29.1 27.0 2.8 76.5 76.2 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 28.0 28.4 26.9 1.9 67.3 66.6 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 29.7 30.1 29.2 3.1 82.8 81.4 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 29.4 29.7 27.0 2.8 74.5 75.6 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 27.8 28.1 28.6 2.2 72.4 71.0 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 26.0 26.9 24.1 1.6 65.2 65.1 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 27.6 27.9 28.6 2.0 68.5 67.7 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 21.7 22.0 21.7 1.2 63.4 62.9 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.8 28.6 2.3 70.3 70.4 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 28.4 28.6 28.4 2.2 71.3 71.3 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.3 28.6 2.3 70.5 70.2 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 27.2 27.8 26.7 1.8 66.1 66.2 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 28.6 28.7 27.7 2.4 71.2 71.7 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 27.8 27.7 24.9 2.1 70.0 70.8 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 27.6 27.9 28.2 2.4 72.4 71.8 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.1 27.3 2.8 77.3 77.6 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 21.4 22.3 23.2 1.5 64.9 64.4 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 48 52 100 27.8 28.2 28.6 1.9 67.6 67.3 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------