***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 15.6 15.9 18.7 1.5 88.2 81.4 15.1 15.3 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 15.7 16.0 18.5 1.4 84.3 79.0 14.3 15.2 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 17.3 18.8 19.1 1.7 91.1 83.3 16.4 16.8 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 12.5 14.3 16.5 1.7 91.7 84.0 11.5 12.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.3 15.0 16.7 1.7 92.1 85.1 13.4 13.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 13.1 13.8 14.5 1.7 93.9 87.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.0 18.5 1.3 81.7 77.3 14.8 15.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 8.4 9.2 14.1 1.5 89.8 83.2 7.4 7.8 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 15.5 16.2 16.9 1.8 93.4 87.3 14.3 14.9 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 15.4 15.9 15.1 1.6 90.6 84.5 14.3 14.8 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 15.3 16.0 16.3 1.8 94.6 87.4 14.4 14.7 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 13.2 13.9 15.2 1.8 93.9 86.8 12.3 12.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 14.5 15.3 14.9 1.7 94.2 87.9 13.8 14.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.0 16.7 16.4 1.4 87.5 81.7 15.1 15.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 16.8 17.4 18.2 1.9 95.0 87.7 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 15.6 16.6 15.8 1.8 95.1 88.3 14.4 15.1 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.5 18.5 1.5 84.8 80.1 15.1 15.6 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 14.0 14.2 14.2 1.4 88.1 82.6 13.0 13.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 15.4 16.1 18.6 1.5 85.9 80.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 9.8 10.2 11.9 1.2 85.3 80.3 9.0 9.3 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.3 15.7 18.0 1.6 91.3 84.4 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.1 15.9 18.4 1.5 85.7 80.6 14.3 14.6 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 14.9 15.9 18.6 1.6 88.9 82.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 15.8 16.8 16.4 1.5 89.8 83.4 14.6 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 15.2 15.6 17.3 1.4 87.4 80.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.5 14.2 1.5 91.6 86.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.8 18.0 1.5 87.7 81.1 14.2 14.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 14.5 15.2 17.0 1.8 94.0 86.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 12.4 13.0 13.5 1.4 88.4 82.8 11.5 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.3 18.8 1.5 85.5 79.6 14.8 15.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------