***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 18.2 0.4 61.4 54.1 14.5 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.5 18.3 0.5 63.2 56.4 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.2 18.1 18.9 0.7 68.6 59.7 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.3 16.3 0.7 68.0 58.6 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.9 16.1 0.7 67.7 59.0 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.6 14.5 0.8 69.5 62.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.7 18.3 0.3 61.5 54.1 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.3 13.8 0.5 60.7 56.2 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.8 16.2 0.6 67.5 59.2 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.7 14.6 0.5 62.9 57.1 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.7 15.8 0.8 68.6 61.1 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.6 14.8 0.8 66.6 60.8 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.2 14.1 0.6 63.0 59.3 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 15.9 0.3 58.3 54.6 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 17.1 17.7 0.7 68.6 59.3 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.2 15.2 0.9 68.8 62.4 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 18.3 0.6 65.5 58.3 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.8 13.7 0.4 59.8 56.3 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.7 18.4 0.6 65.0 57.9 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.7 11.2 0.2 54.9 52.3 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.5 17.5 0.5 65.1 57.0 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.8 18.2 0.7 66.4 60.0 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.4 18.3 0.7 66.2 59.5 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.4 15.9 0.5 63.9 58.1 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 16.6 0.2 55.5 50.9 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.5 14.0 0.7 65.3 60.9 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.8 17.4 0.3 58.9 52.5 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.2 16.8 0.9 71.4 61.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.8 13.1 0.4 61.4 56.6 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.8 18.5 0.5 63.6 56.5 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------