***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 15.2 16.3 17.8 0.4 60.2 55.6 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.9 17.5 0.2 56.3 52.3 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 16.4 18.1 18.2 0.6 63.7 56.9 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.5 15.8 0.7 67.5 59.1 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.1 15.2 15.6 0.7 65.7 58.8 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.3 14.1 1.0 73.8 64.9 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.9 17.6 0.2 56.4 51.7 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 9.3 13.4 0.6 65.3 58.6 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.5 15.8 0.6 65.7 58.6 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.2 14.2 0.6 64.6 58.0 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.5 15.3 0.9 70.9 62.0 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.1 14.4 0.9 69.5 62.0 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.3 13.9 0.8 66.8 61.0 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.1 15.3 0.1 54.6 51.7 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.7 17.4 1.0 73.9 61.6 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.7 14.8 1.0 71.5 62.9 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.4 17.4 0.2 57.1 52.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.3 13.2 0.4 61.8 55.8 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.5 17.6 0.2 57.1 52.9 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.0 10.9 0.2 57.4 52.8 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.1 17.1 0.5 63.1 57.1 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.6 17.3 0.2 55.3 52.5 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.3 17.5 0.3 57.7 53.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.7 16.0 15.3 0.3 59.6 55.2 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.8 16.3 0.4 58.3 54.5 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.0 13.8 0.9 69.0 62.4 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.8 17.0 0.4 59.7 55.2 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.6 16.3 1.0 72.5 61.6 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.8 13.2 12.6 0.4 61.2 55.7 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 15.1 16.1 17.8 0.3 58.2 53.1 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------