***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.6 18.9 1.9 78.4 77.1 13.9 14.9 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.6 18.7 1.7 75.5 73.8 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.6 18.5 19.2 2.0 80.3 78.3 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 12.9 13.8 16.7 2.0 83.1 79.1 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 14.3 14.5 17.0 2.1 83.4 80.9 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 13.6 14.9 14.8 2.3 90.4 86.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.6 15.8 18.7 1.7 74.5 72.8 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.3 10.0 14.4 2.0 86.9 83.0 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 15.4 16.8 17.3 2.2 86.6 82.6 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 15.6 16.8 15.4 2.0 85.6 81.9 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.4 16.7 2.3 89.1 84.7 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 13.7 14.6 15.6 2.3 90.5 84.9 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 15.1 15.6 15.5 2.2 89.9 85.4 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.9 16.8 1.9 80.2 78.2 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 16.8 18.2 18.6 2.4 91.0 84.7 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 16.3 17.1 16.2 2.3 91.2 85.4 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 15.8 16.0 18.5 1.7 76.4 73.5 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.2 15.1 14.6 1.8 83.6 79.1 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.7 18.8 1.8 77.1 75.1 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 10.6 11.1 12.5 1.8 84.4 80.9 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.4 15.8 18.3 2.0 84.1 79.8 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.4 18.6 1.7 76.9 73.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.3 18.8 2.0 79.1 77.1 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.4 16.7 1.8 80.3 78.2 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 15.4 15.8 17.7 1.8 79.3 76.4 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 14.9 15.9 14.8 2.1 89.6 84.0 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 15.6 16.1 18.2 1.9 78.0 76.3 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 14.8 15.5 17.4 2.3 88.3 82.9 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.2 14.1 13.9 1.9 84.4 80.5 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.2 18.9 1.8 76.3 74.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------